The headwaters of the mighty Colorado River start in clear, cold mountain streams fed by snowmelt from jagged Rocky Mountain peaks. As these tributaries feed into the Colorado and flow south, they eventually turn into the lifeblood of the West — providing water to tens of millions of people, supporting growing industries and irrigating vegetables and forage crops.
This year, however, there is half as much snow in these mountains as there should be. The Western United States is beset by one of its driest and warmest winters in history up to this point.
While the forecast does look snowier over the next couple of weeks following a welcomed weather pattern change, it likely will not come close to erasing the snow drought resulting from weeks of no snow and spring-like temperatures. The paltry snowpack in the Upper Colorado Basin is at December levels rather than where it should be in February, and that simply means there’s likely to be less water flowing downstream this spring.
It’s bad news for the seven states negotiating over how to divvy up a river that was already shrinking.
After years of overuse and disappearing snowpack, the water level downstream at Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir, is dangerously low. Powell currently sits at just 26% full. Lake Mead — the largest US reservoir that sits farther south on the Colorado River’s path — is a little over 1/3 full. Both human-made lakes are crucial for hydropower generation, but they also store water that supports the economy of the entire Southwest.
The 1922 Colorado River compact allots 7.5 million acre-feet of water yearly to meet the collective needs of the four states in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) and another 7.5 million for the three in the Lower basin (California, Arizona and Nevada). But by the end of this year, states are going to need to figure out how to get by with less.
Those talks have faltered for months, and a deadline of February 14 imposed by the federal government is likely to come and go with no deal, several sources familiar with the negotiations told CNN.
The basin is staring down water “Armageddon,” and a deal is “impossible at this juncture,” one source close to the talks said.
And experts said for every day that goes by without an agreement, the likelihood of states suing each other increases.
The showdown over the future of the Colorado
The battle lines have largely been the same for months, with the three lower basin states in one camp and four upper basin states in the other.
If Powell and Mead levels were to fall below certain thresholds, the lower basin states would have to undergo potentially large mandatory water cuts.
The lower basin has historically used the most water by far, primarily to support vast farms in southern California and Arizona, as well as growing cities like Phoenix, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. In recent years, those three states have looked for ways to cut their water usage and are calling for that pain to be shared by all seven states fed by the Colorado.
The four upper basin states, meanwhile, have historically used less water. And, unlike the lower basin, the federal government doesn’t have a way to legally compel them to cut water use.
Despite offers from lower basin states to further reduce their water usage if all seven share in cuts, the upper basin four so far haven’t agreed to take mandatory cuts this time, either, arguing climate change has reduced the water available and their more water-intensive neighbors to the south should have to use less.
“The big stumbling block is the refusal of the upper basin to participate in cuts,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “I don’t see an agreement happening unless there is movement off that position.”
